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A total of 35 Senate seats are up for grabs this Tuesday; 23 of those seats are currently Republican and 12 are Democrat.

All twelve Democrats appear likely to be reelected (the closest race is in Louisiana, where the Democrat, Mary Landrieu, leads her opponent by 11%). By contrast, almost half of the states in which Republican Senate seats are up for grabs have a margin smaller than that. Even in the wingnut Mecca of Texas, incumbent Republican Senator John Cornyn lead over Democratic challenger Rick Noriega is less than 9%.

Here are ten Senate seats that could switch from Red to Blue, listed in order of the likelihood of a Democrat taking over.

  1. VIRGINIA: Mark Warner (D) leads Jim Gilmore (R) by 28%.
  2. COLORADO: Mark Udall (D) leads Bob Schaffer (R) by 12%.
  3. NEW HAMPSHIRE: Jeanne Shaheen (D) leads John Sununu (R) by 8%.
  4. OREGON: Jeff Merkley (D) leads Gordon Smith (R) by 6%.
  5. NORTH CAROLINA: Kay Hagan (D) leads Elizabeth Dole (R) by 4%.
  6. ALASKA: Mark Begich (D) leads Ted Stevens (R) by 4%.
  7. MINNESOTA: Al Franken (D) leads Norm Coleman (R) by 2%.
  8. KENTUCKY: Mitch McConnell (R) leads Bruce Lunsford (D) by 3%.
  9. GEORGIA: Saxby Chambliss (R) leads Jim Martin (D) by 3%.
  10. MISSISSIPPI: Roger Wicker (R) leads Ronnie Musgrove (D) by 5%.

Should all of these races go to the candidate that’s currently in the lead, the Democrats would pick up seven seats end up with a total of 56 Senators to the Republicans’ 42.

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In the heat of the moment, it’s perfectly reasonable to unload four bullets into another human being–but not to lie to one. That’s how it works in Texas, according to this article from CNN: (more…)

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Superman 2

While covering the presidential horse race, CNN and other mainstream news outlets keeps showing “delegate counts” without explaining their significance, as if there’s no real distinction between “superdelegates” and the apparently not-so-super ones.

But there is a distinction, an important one. Regular delegates, or “pledged” delegates, correspond to actual votes. Superdelegate votes reflect the arbitrary whims and fancies of powerful individuals. (more…)

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